The Finnish Transport and Communications Agency Traficom conducted a maritime barometer survey among industry stakeholders in January 2026. According to the barometer, maritime transport volumes are expected to increase over the next 12 months. Investment outlooks are also largely positive, although economic and geopolitical uncertainty continues to weigh on the operating environment. The survey was conducted before the challenges to maritime transport arising from the situation in the Middle East.
Of the respondents, 32 per cent expect maritime transport volumes to increase somewhat over the next 12 months, while 15 per cent anticipate a decline. More than half of respondents expect volumes to remain unchanged. Investment expectations follow a similar pattern: 29 per cent of maritime sector stakeholders expect investment volumes to increase significantly or somewhat, while 15 per cent foresee a decrease.
It is important to note that the survey was conducted before the escalation of the situation in the Middle East at the turn of February and March.
“The Strait of Hormuz plays a critical role in ensuring the smooth functioning of maritime logistics, which further underlines the challenging nature of the operating environment. The international maritime community therefore convened on 18–19 March for an extraordinary session of the IMO Council, which concluded with a declaration strongly condemning all unlawful attacks threatening the freedom of merchant shipping and the welfare of seafarers. The situation is having a significant adverse impact on the economy and global maritime transport, particularly if the crisis persists,” emphasises Maritime Director Sanna Sonninen at Traficom.
Economic and geopolitical conditions pose challenges to growth
According to respondents, the most significant barriers to growth in the maritime transport sector are currently general economic uncertainty and the geopolitical situation. Uncertainty in international politics and trade disputes are seen as fairly significant threats to the operations of companies in the sector during the current year. Geopolitical tensions are also considered to have led to a permanent increase in maritime transport costs.
International cooperation strengthens security of supply
At the same time, respondents also see positive developments in the operating environment. They consider that Finland’s NATO membership has increased stability and improved the investment environment in the maritime transport sector. In addition, security of supply is assessed to have strengthened as a result of closer international cooperation.
“For Finland, maritime transport is a lifeline for a functioning society and economy. In today’s world, cooperation in the Baltic Sea region plays a key role in ensuring the smooth functioning of maritime transport and safeguarding security of supply. Investments by industry stakeholders, for example in training and in advancing digitalisation in maritime transport, will create the conditions for future growth and development,” says Head of Unit Tuomas Kiiski.
Overall, the barometer results paint a picture of a maritime sector where expectations for growth and investment are cautiously positive, but uncertainty in the operating environment remains significant. Economic and geopolitical developments are directly reflected in companies’ outlooks, and cost pressures are expected to persist to some extent.
Background to the maritime barometer 2026
The Finnish Transport and Communications Agency Traficom conducted the maritime barometer as an online survey in January 2026. A total of 35 Finnish maritime stakeholders responded to the survey, including shipping companies, shipbrokers, ports and industry associations. The maritime barometer is a survey aimed at the leadership of the Finnish maritime sector, mapping respondents’ views on short-term economic and market outlooks as well as longer-term development trends. The target group for the survey includes shipping companies, ports, shipbrokers and industry associations.